Cricket Value Betting – How do I find value bets?

Home » Cricket Value Betting – How do I find value bets?

Most people who bet on cricket are fans and have the skill to make correct value odds predictions. Every cricket fan has their favorite team, and they follow all the careers and the performances of the individual players in the matches. People love the thrill of putting money on stake and making a profit. However, punters serious about making a profit should develop a specific cricket value betting strategy. Cricket is one of the problematic sports to bet on since it has a wide range of markets, including ante-post bets and in-play live betting. One of the significant dangers in cricket value betting is needing a strategy. Instead of speculative bets, a cricket value strategy helps you win good money.

What is Cricket Value Betting?

Cricket Value Betting is placing a bet with the betting odds that do not reflect the actual possibility of the outcomes but put different values to the odds. To understand value betting at its core, use the coin toss situation. If a coin is flipped, it can land on either the head or tail’s tails sides. Each side of the bet has a 50% probability of winning, no matter how much you bet. However, you would never be able to make money in the long term if you were betting on the odds of 50/50 or 2.00.

To make a profit, bookmakers offer a 1.90 on each outcome by taking a margin of 4.8% in each case – applying it to odds on the market. Now, imagine if the bookmaker has offered 1.90 on the heads and 2.10 on the tails. What would you do? If the odds are more on tails, always back tails. The higher the odds, the better the money you gain from it. You might not win the bet each time, but you will make more money in the longer term. The key to successful betting is finding the value bets and prices the bookmakers offer as you estimate the chances of bets.

How to apply value betting to cricket?

Remember, bookmakers’ prices in their purest form are simply opinions. No one in the world can 100% accurately price up a cricket match – there are just too many variables. This applies to all sports events. Their opinions may be backed up by stats, data, and years of experience, but they can still be wrong.

Secondly, bookies’ odds are often influenced by what they think people will bet on. We will explain how this offers you value opportunities later.

So, since the cricket odds you bet on originate from the bookmaker’s event probability assessment, they don’t necessarily reflect the actual probability. You have an edge if you can estimate the probabilities of certain events in a cricket game more accurately than the bookmakers can.

How to calculate value bets?

Before we proceed to discuss the methods for developing a sense of betting value, let’s briefly discuss the concept of value betting first. In particular, how to calculate value bets.

What is a value bet, actually? A value bet is where the likelihood of a given outcome is more significant than what the odds-on offer reflects. Let’s think of a coin toss. When tossing a coin, usually there is a 50% possibility it will land on heads. Let’s say that a bookmaker offers odds of 2.10 for the head-landing coin. It is a value bet, and this is how we calculate the value bet –

Value = (Decimal Odds * Probability) – 1

Value = 1.05 – 1

If the value comes greater than 0, then it is confirmed that we have found a value bet.

Do we get a value bet here?

Value = 0.05

So, betting on the head-landing coin at odds of 2.10 is a value bet. Betting on cricket, as well as other sports, however, are a little trickier. Unlike a coin toss, we do not know the precise probability of a given outcome. We may provide our best estimate on who may win an upcoming Premier League match between West Brom and Manchester City, but it can only ever be our best estimate. And this is the task of successful sports betting. A successful sports bettor finds value bets by estimating the likelihood of given outcomes better than a bookmaker does.

How do we know if cricket odds represent value?

Let’s take an example to know if cricket odds represent value. A bookmaker is offering a bet on the IPL match played between Rangpur Riders and Fortune Barishal at a neutral venue where both are doing good. The odds of each team are:

Rangpur Riders – 2.5

Fortune Barishal – 1.5

Can we now apply the bets based on the cricket value betting strategy? No. Use your analytical ability and judgment to make a bet. Consider all the historical events between both teams and see who won. Research the news, the sides, the players and the venue to create your probabilities of each team winning. For example, if you calculate Rangpur Riders to have a winning chance of 40%, then Fortune Barishal will have a 60% winning chance. The percentage should always total up to 100%. Hence, if you back Chennai Super Kings and they win, you get the value bet in your favor.

How to know when to take value odds?

Our percentage and the bookmaker’s probabilities are different in our example above. There is a valuable opportunity here – betting on New Zealand at odds of 2.75. From our own estimations, we concluded that NZ is a 40% chance of winning the match. LeoVegas odds, margin included, only reflect a 36.3% chance of a New Zealand victory. Suppose we bet ₹10,000 on New Zealand as a match-winner. What is our expected value on this bet? Calculate Expected Value (EV) for a single bet by using the EV formula:

Since our potential profit is ₹17,500 (₹10,000 X 2.75 – ₹10,000) and our real chance of winning the bet is 40%, we can easily calculate our bet EV:

(₹17,500 X 40%) – (₹10,000 X 60%) = ₹1,000

Simply put, we can expect to make a ₹1,000 profit on average if we place this bet numerous times. Consistently finding value bets leads to long-term gains.

When not to apply the value bet strategy?

If you love the idea of cricket value betting, you may already be trying to work on the formulas or making your predictions. However, it would help if you remembered that there are some scenarios where it’s better to use something other than value betting. You will understand these rules with time, but keeping them in mind is always great.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, developing that mindset is the hardest thing for a new bettor while using the cricket value betting strategy. You need to have the mathematical skill set and the ability to detect value in the presented odds. It is crucial not to get emotional as it might result in irrational thinking. One should target the odd secondary markets by browsing through various Cricket match odds sites and markets instead of high-volume markets like the probable match winners for better profits.